New U.S. Sanctions
On Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to announce new economic measures against Iran aimed at "squashing" the Iranian economy and "collapsing" the government. President Donald Trump warned of an "economic D-Day," preparing the most potent financial measures against any country, including Iran.
Impact on Iran’s Economy
Banks, oil buyers and refiners, shipping companies, registries, ports, airports, exchange houses, front companies, and governments facilitating Iranian trade could face secondary sanctions. In Tehran’s open market, the rial fell to 2.03 million rials per U.S. dollar, weakening citizens’ purchasing power.
Iran’s Response and Strategies
Iranian military officials remain defiant. Mohsen Rezaei, the new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, warned that countries backing the new U.S. measures would be considered enemies of Tehran. He said, "If the economic war continues, not a single drop of oil will be exported, neither through the Strait of Hormuz nor from anywhere in the Persian Gulf."
Army chief Amir Hatami told commanders that forces are ready to "fight for 10-20 generations" and must use a "language of force" to make the U.S. understand it cannot act in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
China’s Role and Regional Partners
Energy strategist Umud Shokri noted that China is Iran’s biggest economic lifeline, with its large demand for Iranian oil providing protection. However, Chinese banks and globally exposed companies still avoid transactions that could threaten their access to the U.S. financial system. Shokri added that Central Asian countries and Azerbaijan can help diversify transport and trade routes, but lack China’s economic scale.
Conclusion
The new U.S. sanctions, despite Iran’s sophisticated evasion tactics, are unlikely to change Iran’s behavior but will continue to strain the economy. The rial’s fall to 2.03 million rials per dollar in Tehran’s open market underscores the concrete impact of these measures.
